Korea has been a thorn in the side of the United States and most of the western world for quite a while. The country was created at the end of the Korean war in 1953 at the 38th parallel of the Korean peninsula. The Korean experiment is heralded by many as why Capitalism triumphs over Communism or Dictatorship. One country, split in two, between a Capitalist state to the South and a Communist state to the south. Originally, the North Korean state was much more successful than the Southern one.

Eventually, after many Presidents and political changes, the South Korean state became more prosperous, whereas the North plateaued and regressed. The North Korean state, recently under the authoritarian regime of Kim Jong-Un and his father, Kim Jong-Il, has been developing nuclear weapons with technology rumoured to have been acquired from the Soviets. They now have a nuke (Hwasong-15) which is capable of reaching the U.S. Mainland.

One theory is that North Korea and Kim Jong Un are actually incredibly smart, and all threats to the U.S are part of a well crafted survival strategy. The launching of a missile capable of reaching the U.S. in November and Kim Jong Un’s subsequent sudden urge for peace talks is not a coincidence. The North now have their safety insured, because the last thing anyone wants is a nuclear war, especially the U.S.

This has all happened before. There is a theorized cycle according to Andrei Lankov, a North Korea expert, that when North Korea is unhappy, as with the recent International sanctions, they manufacture a crisis. In recent times, this crisis has involved the threat of nuclear attack.
This then puts them in a better position to negotiate and receive concessions from the U.S. and China. They will claim to give up their nuclear programme, as they have done before. But, they have often gone back on their word and continued to develop nuclear weapons anyway because they knew nobody would do anything. This is what is most likely to happen now, with the North seeking out major concessions from the Americans, mostly wanting them to leave the Korean peninsula.

The talks will probably not break down and may be a great political success, with Donald Trump’s supporters suggesting he be nominated for a Nobel Peace Prize. But behind the political facade, Kim Jong Un will most likely make nothing but symbolic changes, with this slated to happen again in 20 years at most. Peace talks with North Korea are very calculated on their behalf and they will almost always end up “winning” them.

Let’s see what Donald Trump can achieve as the new “wild card” in this oft repeated process. Share your opinion in the comments below!

Edit: An earlier version of this article incorrectly stated that Donald Trump has been nominated for a Nobel Peace Prize. At this time, he is not a nominee.